Written 7/18/2003

Here comes Harden.
Oakland phenom minor-leaguer, Rich Harden is making his way to the big show. While everyone knows the big 3 will come to play, the 4th and 5th spots of the Oakland rotation has been without success. Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang, & John Halama have combined for a 4.71 ERA in 210 innings working out of those final two spots. Meanwhile, Harden has done the following in AA & AAA:

	IP	W-L	BB	K	ERA	WHIP

AA	13.0	2-0	0	17	0.00	0.00

AAA	88.2	9-4	35	91	3.15	1.21

-----

Total	101.2	11-4	35	108	2.74	1.05

The 13.0 AA innings were two perfect outings against the Round Rock Express. Along with his fastball, he can throw a changeup, splitter and slider with their effectiveness following that order. Like the 2 of Big 3, Hudson and Zito, Harden gets to debut deep in the rotation in the middle of season of a pennant race. They definitely didn't disappoint in their callups:

		   IP	 W-L	BB	  K	 ERA	WHIP

Zito (00)	 	 92.2	 7-4	45	 78	2.72	1.18

Hudson (99)	136.1	11-2	62	132	3.24	1.34

Harden is scheduled to start Monday, July 21st in Kansas City against the surprise Royals. The callup of Harden now means that someone else will take over the Prospect Watch featured here on Rich or Sporer, but fear not, I'm so enamored with this young righty that a Harden Watch will be tracking his big league performance. If Harden fulfills his potential immediately and goes "Zito" on the league in the 2nd half, then I like Oakland to dethrone Seattle at the top of the AL West and pull off one of their patented 2nd half runs with 47-52 wins against 16-21 losses.


Griffey done for the year.
In the least surprising story of the year, Cincinnati malcontent, Ken Griffey Jr., is DL-bound... AGAIN! The former superstar and 11-time All Star ruptured a tendon in his right ankle while legging out a double on July 17. He'll have surgery today that will end his season. It's hard to find anyone that has a harder and further fall from grace than Junior.

Once thought by many to be the greatest player in the game, Junior was involved in the 60-home run races of '97 and '98, making great diving plays in center and having his Upper Deck Rookie card reach over $100 in value. As soon as he left Seattle after the 1999, 162 game seasons became a thing of the past for Junior. The 145 games he played in 2000 is the most he's played since the move:

	  G	HR	RBI	 OPS

2000	145	40	118	.943

2001	111	22	 65	.898

2002	 70	 8	 23	.784

2003	 52	13	 26	.935

He went from Poster-Boy to Bitter-Boy as his fragility has been well-chronicled by the media since the move. Gone are the seasons of 1.000+ OPS totals, of which he had 4, gone are the seasons of the double-digit stolen bases totals, of which he had 10 and since his last one has 10 total swipes spanning four years. After seven of eight seasons with 40+ home runs, including 56 in two straight (97 & 98), Griffey has just 43 since 2001.

Even more unfortunate is signs of the old Junior were starting to shine through this year as he entered the break homering in 5 straight games. Of course, I think that that was the surest sign that something bad was going to happen to Junior. The only explanation for what has happened to him is that he had a contract with the Devil from 1989 to 2000 and instead of retiring, he tried to go against the Devil.

So where does he go from here? Another partial season in the books and more rehab ahead. During 1997, almost everyone would've believed that Junior was the odds-on favorite to dethrone Aaron and Ruth atop the home run records, now he can't top Cincinnati's home run charts. At 33, I've got to imagine that retirements thought are lingering. With this injury, Junior will now draw unfair comparisons to basketball player, Grant Hill in terms of unfulfilled potential. Over the past four years, 2003 included, Junior will have played just 58% of the possible 648 games in Cincinnati while Hill will have played just 14% of the possible 328 games since his sign-&-trade to Orlando. Worse yet, the Reds lost the game to the Houston Astros 5-4 in Cincinnati.

Bobby Kielty moved to Toronto...
Instead of commenting on this trade at length, I'm going to recommend that you view Aaron Gleeman's & Twins Geek's opinions on the matter. I said yesterday that I thought that moving Kielty for Stewart was quite the head-scratcher and that's my piece. These two guys cover it more in depth and being that their Twins fans, their view allows you to see just how silly this move was.

I will say this about the trade, at least it gave us diehard baseballers something to discuss to during the deadest of dead days in baseball. No games, no home run derby, no celebrity/old-timer softball games. So Minnesota GM Terry Ryan decided to take the limelight all to himself and make this move. I guess he's thinking any attention is good attention. Hmm...

I'd like to welcome Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT to my Blog links as we were both given a plug by Aaron yesterday. Rich's latest confirms what many believe: Todd Helton takes tremendous advantage of Coors Field.

Here and There...
As mentioned, it's a super-slow day in baseball, so I'm going to go elsewhere with a few things... I've been eagerly awaiting Bad Boys II and now it's just one day away. I suspect it'll finish #1 easily this weekend and I know I'll see it AT LEAST once... If you are allowed to listen to internet radio at work or home, I'd definitely recommend listening to Tony Kornheiser on ESPN Radio.com from 9:00am to 12:00pm Central. A great show. A bit heavy on the entertainment news, but good guests and hilarious dialouge... I started to tune into the Carson Daly Roast on MTV, but when I realized he wasn't actually being roasted in an oven, I quickly tuned off... EA Sports' NCAA Football 2004 is to be released nationwide today. Some places had it on Monday night, others on Tuesday and even some more yesterday, but today was the official release date...

Written 7/16/2003

Garret Anderson feasts during the Break
After winning the Home Run Derby 9-8 against Albert Pujols on Monday, Garret Anderson gave an encore presentation Tuesday night by going 3-for-4 with a 2-run HR en route to taking home the game's MVP award. While I thought it should've gone to late-inning hero Hank Blalock, the Anderson choice isn't too bad. However, after his Derby Championship & ASG MVP, a lot of sports pundits were going off about how Anderson should now get his credit for being one of the most underrated American League power Outfielders. But is he really? How does he compare to top AL OFs like Manny Ramirez, Magglio Ordonez and Bernie Williams over the past three seasons?

2002:		HR	RBI	OPS	AVG

Ramirez		33	107	1.097	.349

Ordonez		38	135	 .978	.320

Anderson		29	123	 .942	.316

Williams		19	102	 .908	.333

2001:		HR	RBI	OPS	AVG

Ramirez		41	125	1.014	.306

Williams		26	 94	 .917	.307

Ordonez		31	113	 .915	.305

Anderson		28	123	 .792	.289

2000:		HR	RBI	OPS	AVG

Ramirez		38	122	1.154	.351

Williams		30	121	 .957	.307

Ordonez		32	126	 .917	.315

Anderson		35	117	 .826	.286

Hmm, not very well. Maybe Anderson isn't a household name because he doesn't really deserve to be. He's a good player, not great and certainly not terrible, but a good player. The lowest average all three years, the lowest OPS for two of the three years, third out of four in home runs two years and second once. Even Ordonez, who is better than Anderson, has yet to become a truly household name despite many, myself included, thinking he should be already. I'd say that Anderson is closer to New York Mets OF, Cliff Floyd:

2002-2000:	HR	RBI	OPS	AVG

02 Anderson	29	123	 .942	.316

01 Anderson	28	123	 .792	.289

00 Anderson	35	117	 .826	.286

2002-2000:	HR	RBI	OPS	AVG

02 Floyd		28	79	.921	.288

01 Floyd		31	103	.968	.317

00 Floyd		22	91	.907	.300

The RBIs aren't there, but that's more of a team statistic and often out of the players control. Furthermore, when he does get the opportunity, Floyd comes through as he hit .298 with runners in scoring position from 2000-2002. Other than that, the stats between the two are very similar.

Anderson was a deserving All-Star and had one heck of a break, but the next time someone tries to plead their case about how underrated he is in terms of power Outfielders in the league, let them know that he's really not and instead of comparing him to the Ramirez's and Ordonez's of the world, match his stats with the Floyd's and Ibanez's of the league.

Rumors update...
As mentioned earlier this week, from now until July 31st, rumors updates courtesy of Lee Sinins' E-mail Reports will be posted and analyzed. Without further ado, today's update:

According to the Beaver County Times, the Astros are interested in Pirates P Jeff Suppan, while the Boston Herald reports the Redsox are interested in him.

My Thoughts: With the inconsistency of Roy Oswalt (injuries), Wade Miller, and Tim Redding, Suppan would be a helpful addition to a rotation that is susceptible to getting lit up. The Red Sox appear to be going after every SP available and rightfully so. Like the others, Suppan is serious upgrade over those filling the holes after Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe.

According to NY Newsday, the Redsox and Cardinals are interested in Mets SP Steve Trachsel. According to Trachsel's agent, the team says he won't be traded.

My Thoughts: Wait a minute, the Sox want a pitcher? Honestly, I'm not sure that this is the one though. Aside from his one-hitter, he hasn't been very good including his last outing in which he went 1 2/3 innings, put 10 men on and gave up 7 runs. Boston should hope that Trachsel's agent is right. Stick with chasing Suppan, Theo.

According to the Tampa Tribune, the Braves, Orioles and Devil Rays could be working on a 3 way deal that would send Devil Rays P Joe Kennedy to the Orioles.

My Thoughts: I would assume that this would send Sidney Ponson to Atlanta and prospects to the D-Rays from both clubs.

According to reports from both Minnesota and Toronto, the Twins interest in BlueJays LF Shannon Stewart is heating up, with the BlueJays wanting OF Bobby Kielty.

My Thoughts: This is a head-scratcher here. I don't see much difference between the two players especially since Stewart doesn't steal any more and has actually been caught more than he's stole (1-of-3). Kielty's got a .252AVG, .370OBP, & .420SLG to Stewart's .294/.347/.449. Thus, I'm not sure why the Twinkies would really be chasing Stewart so much.

Written 7/15/2003

The 2nd Half Heroes.
The All-Star Break also is a big trading time for fantasy leaguers and everyone seems to be looking for those few guys that really turn it on in the 2nd half on a regular basis. A couple of guys that are known for their strong second halves are starting pitcher Cory Lidle and power hitter Shawn Green, but who are some of the others that turn it up for 5x5 Rotissere Leagues according to Budman's Valuations after the Mid-Summer Classic? Well let's look at the last two years:

2002 Hitters

Player            Team  Gms  AB Hits HRs RBIs Runs SB CS   Avg

Guerrero, Vladimir MON   81 308  105  21  56   58  23 11  .341

Rodriguez, Alex    TEX   82 319   95  33  77   62   4  1  .298

Ramirez, Manny     BOS   82 304  106  24  70   57   0  0  .349

Bonds, Barry       SF    68 197   78  21  60   55   6  1  .396

Ordonez, Magglio   CWS   75 292   95  25  75   59   1  1  .325

Pujols, Albert     STL   80 304  104  18  73   61   1  3  .342

Tejada, Miguel     OAK   81 331  105  19  72   54   5  1  .317

Thome, Jim         CLE   67 218   72  28  61   58   1  0  .330

Soriano, Alfonso   NYY   79 353   98  20  54   68  18  7  .278

Williams, Bernie   NYY   76 310  112   9  62   46   5  1  .361

Beltran, Carlos    KC    84 335   94  17  59   61  17  4  .281

Kent, Jeff         SF    77 316   98  24  56   56   2  0  .310

Bagwell, Jeff      HOU   81 290   94  19  58   51   4  1  .324

Ibanez, Raul       KC    79 315   96  18  67   46   4  2  .305

Abreu, Bob         PHI   80 308   93  14  44   50  17  8  .302

Palmeiro, Rafael   TEX   82 286   81  26  60   58   2  0  .283

Boone, Bret        SEA   78 307   99  13  57   43   6  1  .322

Jones, Chipper     ATL   77 253   85  17  49   42   3  1  .336

Giambi, Jason      NYY   75 266   83  20  58   67   1  0  .312

Rolen, Scott       STL   80 298   85  20  62   52   5  3  .285

Renteria, Edgar    STL   78 283   93   8  50   46  12  3  .329

Burks, Ellis       CLE   68 260   86  18  50   54   1  1  .331

Berkman, Lance     HOU   80 292   88  17  60   58   4  2  .301

Boone, Aaron       CIN   82 315   81  15  48   52  21  3  .257

Rodriguez, Ivan    TEX   75 277   92  16  45   53   3  4  .332

No huge suprises really. Raul Ibanez of the KC Royals is a bit of surprise, but even he is becoming more and more familiar to the common fan. A second half like last year's out of Vladimir Guerrero would be a very pleasant surprise for those fantasy owners that have dealt with injury in the first half of the season. After looking at 2001's top 25 second halfers, we can see who does it on a consistent basis:

2001 Hitters

Player            Team  Gms  AB Hits HRs RBIs Runs SB CS   Avg

Sosa, Sammy        CHC   83 299  104  38  85   84   0  1  .348

Bonds, Barry       SF    80 243   85  34  66   66   7  2  .350

Rodriguez, Alex    TEX   83 324  102  29  68   63  14  1  .315

Beltran, Carlos    KC    80 314  109  13  63   60  21  1  .347

Green, Shawn       LA    81 313   94  29  63   65  11  2  .300

Helton, Todd       COL   79 296  103  24  65   55   4  1  .348

Suzuki, Ichiro     SEA   80 337  117   5  33   57  29  8  .347

Guerrero, Vladimir MON   80 301   89  16  52   50  27  8  .296

Bagwell, Jeff      HOU   83 308   93  20  76   66   7  2  .302

Chavez, Eric       OAK   77 274   90  21  71   50   6  1  .328

Thome, Jim         CLE   83 284   87  28  75   56   0  1  .306

Alomar, Roberto    CLE   80 292   94  12  53   61  18  2  .322

Cruz, Jose Jr      TOR   80 331   90  25  53   58  17  5  .272

Sheffield, Gary    LA    80 297   97  20  60   57   6  3  .327

Giambi, Jason      OAK   76 257   90  19  60   63   2  0  .350

Koskie, Corey      MIN   80 294   86  18  59   56  16  5  .293

Boone, Bret        SEA   80 315  105  17  63   60   3  5  .333

Aurilia, Rich      SF    80 335  100  25  64   64   1  1  .299

Pierre, Juan       COL   80 337  113   1  33   60  26 10  .335

Jeter, Derek       NYY   76 306  102  15  36   60  12  1  .333

Ordonez, Magglio   CWS   84 313   97  13  60   50  14  5  .310

Jones, Chipper     ATL   80 292  103  17  43   55   4  8  .353

Sexson, Richie     MLW   84 313   86  28  72   50   2  2  .275

Ramirez, Aramis    PIT   82 315   99  20  63   49   3  3  .314

Abreu, Bob         PHI   82 301   89  15  52   54  16  9  .296

Those appearing on the both top 25's: Guerrero, Bonds, A.Rodriguez, Beltran, Ordonez, Thome, Abreu, B.Boone, C.Jones, & Giambi. Guerrero has 50 stolen bases in the past 2 second halves and Rodriguez has 62 home runs. The impressive thing about these lists is that most of these guys have already had great 1st halves. How did those 15 in the 2002 list that don't appear on the 2001 Top 25 do in 2001's second half? Let's look (sorted by Avg):?

The Other 15 in 2001

  Player          Team  Gms  AB Hits HRs RBIs Runs SB CS   Avg

Rodriguez, Ivan    TEX   49 185   62   9  24   29   4  3  .335

Boone, Aaron       CIN   51 186   58   8  35   31   3  1  .312

Pujols, Albert     STL   82 302   95  16  64   61   1  1  .315

Berkman, Lance     HOU   80 295   91  12  56   48   3  5  .308

Rolen, Scott       PHI   74 270   82  17  59   50   7  2  .304

Bagwell, Jeff      HOU   83 308   93  20  76   66   7  2  .302

Kent, Jeff         SF    79 315   94  11  48   41   4  1  .298

Williams, Bernie   NYY   81 298   87  12  49   50   3  4  .292

Ibanez, Raul       KC    68 206   60  10  39   34   0  1  .291

Renteria, Edgar    STL   76 267   77   5  33   30  13  2  .288

Palmeiro, Rafael   TEX   83 309   87  26  63   55   0  0  .282

Ramirez, Manny     BOS   65 231   63  17  47   39   0  1  .273

Soriano, Alfonso   NYY   81 291   77  14  46   36  20  8  .265

Tejada, Miguel     OAK   83 314   83  15  64   56   6  3  .264

Burks, Ellis       CLE   56 184   48   8  21   33   2  0  .261

All 15 still had solid halves, though some didn't hit for the average they are usually good for. I-Rod's lack of HRs and SBs is probably what kept him out of the Top 25 since he hit .335. As for Pujols, he killed in the 2nd half and missed the Top 25 by just 3 spots.

Johnny Damon is also known for turning it on during the 2nd half of the season, so let's quickly look at his last two years in the 2nd half:

2002 Damon, Johnny      BOS  154 623  178  14  63  118  31  6  .286

2001 Damon, Johnny      OAK   77 317   90   4  17   58  13  5  .284

Very solid numbers indeed, and enough to make Rotojunkie's John Hoyos think he'll go 15/15 in the second half of this year. But what about pitchers? Who are the top 25 pitchers in the 2nd half of the past two seasons?

2002 Pitchers

  Player          Team  Gms  IP   Ks BBs  Hs  ERs  W  L  S   ERA   Ratio

Johnson, Randy     ARZ  18 135.1 179  38 100  34  12  3  0   2.26   1.02

Martinez, Pedro    BOS  14  96.2 120  19  64  15  11  2  0   1.40   0.86

Zito, Barry        OAK  18 123.2  86  42  91  28  13  2  0   2.04   1.08

Wolf, Randy        PHI  16 117.1 105  26  83  30   7  3  0   2.30   0.93

Smoltz, John       ATL  36  36.2  39  10  20   7   3  0 28   1.72   0.82

Mulder, Mark       OAK  17 126.0 102  29  96  42  10  3  0   3.00   0.99

Millwood, Kevin    ATL  17 111.1  97  38  85  33  13  3  0   2.67   1.10

Schilling, Curt    ARZ  18 128.0 141  20 114  46  10  4  0   3.23   1.05

Koch, Billy        OAK  45  50.1  46  23  38  17   7  4 25   3.04   1.21

Miller, Wade       HOU  17 114.2 104  42  97  29  12  1  0   2.28   1.21

Oswalt, Roy        HOU  18 116.1 103  33  99  36  11  4  0   2.79   1.13

Gagne, Eric        LA   39  40.2  55  12  32  12   4  1 23   2.66   1.08

Lidle, Cory        OAK  16 111.2  61  22  79  33   6  3  0   2.66   0.90

Wagner, Billy      HOU  37  38.0  49   9  22  10   2  1 22   2.37   0.82

Wakefield, Tim     BOS  20 103.1  84  26  80  33   9  2  0   2.87   1.03

Lowe, Derek        BOS  16 108.1  56  22  92  36  10  4  0   2.99   1.05

Maddux, Greg       ATL  18 110.0  67  22 107  28   9  4  0   2.29   1.17

Washburn, Jarrod   ANA  16 107.1  61  29  89  34  10  4  0   2.85   1.10

Hudson, Tim        OAK  16 114.2  70  21 116  30   9  2  0   2.35   1.19

Reed, Rick         MIN  17 103.2  66  11  98  34   9  3  0   2.95   1.05

Kim, Byung-Hyun    ARZ  34  36.2  27   7  31   6   5  2 16   1.47   1.04

Percival, Troy     ANA  31  32.0  36  13  19   6   2  0 21   1.69   1.00

Halladay, Roy      TOR  17 119.1  74  36 111  36  10  3  0   2.72   1.23

Pettitte, Andy     NYY  15 100.0  76  17 104  35  11  3  0   3.15   1.21

Dotel, Octavio     HOU  42  47.0  57  10  23   5   2  1  4   0.96   0.70

If Koch, Miller, Lidle, Wakefield, Maddux, Reed and Pettitte have huge second halves like last year, they'll be greatly improving over their otherwise horrible first halves. Hard to believe that Dotel could get better, but if he comes through with a ridiculously great 2nd half like last year, he'll bring down his 2.52 ERA and .95 WHIP. Now, a look at 2001 to see who's done this more than once:

2001 Pitchers

  Player          Team  Gms  IP   Ks BBs  Hs  ERs  W  L  S   ERA   Ratio

Johnson, Randy     ARZ  17 123.0 183  31  87  31  11  1  0   2.27   0.96

Vazquez, Javier    MON  14 108.0 102  15  75  23  10  2  0   1.92   0.83

Zito, Barry        OAK  18 113.1 112  44  81  29  13  2  0   2.30   1.10

Garcia, Freddy     SEA  18 132.1  96  28 111  37  10  5  0   2.52   1.05

Mulder, Mark       OAK  18 126.2  88  26 107  41  13  3  0   2.91   1.05

Mussina, Mike      NYY  18 119.0 118  24  96  35   9  4  0   2.65   1.01

Moyer, Jamie       SEA  17 115.1  68  19  96  32  11  3  0   2.50   1.00

Schilling, Curt    ARZ  18 127.1 152  21 117  42  10  4  0   2.97   1.08

Foulke, Keith      CWS  37  38.2  41  10  25   8   2  4 25   1.86   0.91

Lidle, Cory        OAK  15 105.0  59  23  87  32  12  2  0   2.74   1.05

Hoffman, Trevor    SD   32  30.1  31   9  19   8   1  1 27   2.37   0.92

Rivera, Mariano    NYY  34  38.0  37   5  33  10   2  3 24   2.37   1.00

Nen, Robb          SF   39  40.0  48   8  29  11   2  3 21   2.48   0.93

Oswalt, Roy        HOU  15  98.0 102  12  92  31   8  2  0   2.85   1.06

Trachsel, Steve    NYM  15 101.1  91  26  78  37   9  4  0   3.29   1.03

Benitez, Armando   NYM  39  39.2  48  19  33  18   3  1 28   4.08   1.31

Ortiz, Russ        SF   16 114.1  90  36  90  41   9  4  0   3.23   1.10

Appier, Kevin      NYM  17 110.2  88  32  90  34   7  2  0   2.77   1.10

Glavine, Tom       ATL  18 116.2  50  39 103  32  10  2  0   2.47   1.22

Buehrle, Mark      CWS  17 118.2  57  25 106  43  10  4  0   3.26   1.10

Mesa, Jose         PHI  36  34.1  25   6  33   5   2  2 21   1.31   1.14

Kim, Byung-Hyun    ARZ  39  46.2  48  19  23  12   2  4 15   2.31   0.90

Wagner, Billy      HOU  34  32.2  37   9  21   9   0  2 23   2.48   0.92

Williams, Woody    STL  17 110.0  75  29  97  38  10  3  0   3.11   1.15

Zimmerman, Jeff    TEX  31  32.2  35  10  17   5   1  0 18   1.38   0.83

Off the bat, I'd say go get Lidle. He loves the 2nd half. Repeat performers with Lidle include: R.Johnson (1st both years, coming off injury in 2003), Zito, Oswalt, Mulder, Schilling, & Kim.

Now, how do those that are mashing the ball this year generally do in the 2nd half of the year? Will they numbers in previous 2nd halves lead us to believe that they can keep it up or will they come down to Earth as the temperatures heat up?


2003 1st Half Hitting Superlatives

              Player          Team  Gms  AB Hits HRs RBIs Runs SB CS   Avg

2003 Delgado, Carlos    TOR   94 345  108  28  97   76   0  0  .313

2002 Delgado, Carlos    TOR   65 227   69  16  49   55   0  0  .304

2001 Delgado, Carlos    TOR   82 291   88  17  48   53   2  0  .302

Delgado has been the AL MVP thus far, but his 2nd half numbers in years previous suggest that he'll slow down, but then there's always the case of the special year. However, that's not something you can predict and at this point, Delgado looks to end with about 45 home runs and 145 runs batted in, hardly a bad year, but a definitely decline off his 48/167 pace.

       Player          Team  Gms  AB Hits HRs RBIs Runs SB CS   Avg

2003 Mueller, Bill      BOS   82 283   94   8  39   48   1  3  .332

2002 Mueller, Bill      SF    63 204   58   5  20   33   0  0  .284

2001 Mueller, Bill      CHC   34  84   22   1   7   14   0  1  .262

Only once in his career has Mueller finished a season hitting .300 ('96/.330) and he only played 55 games that season. However, he's in one of the most potent lineups in recent memory and as a career .290 hitter, he's been known to hit for some significant average. I do believe he'll drop off and end up with a .305 average.

       Player          Team  Gms  AB Hits HRs RBIs Runs SB CS   Avg

2003 Pierre, Juan       FLA   95 393  117   0  25   60  44 10  .298

2001 Pierre, Juan       COL   80 337  113   1  33   60  26 10  .335

2002 Pierre, Juan       COL   71 258   80   1  19   45  23  4  .310

Many predicted the demise of Pierre once he left Colorado, including myself. Whoops! Can he stay hot and get the 75 steals he's on pace for? Yes, I think so. Even though the Florida manager switch made many think the running would stop, Pierre still managed 16 steals in June and had 6 in 11 July games before the break. He'll continue to run in the 2nd half.

       Player          Team  Gms  AB Hits HRs RBIs Runs SB CS   Avg

2003 Lowell, Mike       FLO   93 353   97  28  76   62   2  1  .275

2002 Lowell, Mike       FLO   79 284   66  11  39   41   3  0  .232

2001 Lowell, Mike       FLO   77 295   83   7  43   33   1  0  .281

Lowell has a propensity for the summer power outage and thus, I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing this summer. Of his 70 home runs from 2000-2002, 17 came in the 2nd half. Sell high on Lowell and reap the benefits as you make your push for the top in August and September.

       Player          Team  Gms  AB Hits HRs RBIs Runs SB CS   Avg

2003 Suzuki, Ichiro     SEA   91 389  137   8  28   69  25  6  .352

2002 Suzuki, Ichiro     SEA   78 324   92   6  23   49  10  7  .284

2001 Suzuki, Ichiro     SEA   80 337  117   5  33   57  29  8  .347

Ichiro had similar first halves in his first two years, but tailed off immensely in 2002, while staying pretty hot in 2001. So what will we get in 2003? I would venture to say a return to 2001. He's the catalyst for the division leading Mariners and I think he's learned to pace himself more for the 162 game schedule and should still hit well over .300 with 20+ steals in the summer days of this season.

2003 1st Half Pitching Superlatives

       Player          Team  Gms  IP   Ks BBs  Hs  ERs  W  L  S   ERA   Ratio

2003 Halladay, Roy      TOR  21 153.0 115  21 151  58  13  2  0   3.41   1.12

2002 Halladay, Roy      TOR  17 119.1  74  36 111  36  10  3  0   2.72   1.23

2001 Halladay, Roy      TOR  17 105.1  96  25  97  37   5  3  0   3.16   1.16

Bet on continued success for the Blue Jay ace in the 2nd half. The only caveat would be the 4-man rotation that manager Carlos Tosca has gone to leading to burnout of Halladay. If that is avoided, I see 8-10 more wins with a 3.20 ERA in the summer.

       Player          Team  Gms  IP   Ks BBs  Hs  ERs  W  L  S   ERA   Ratio

2003 Moyer, Jamie       SEA  19 122.1  81  39 106  41  12  5  0   3.02   1.19

2002 Moyer, Jamie       SEA  17 117.1  84  24 105  44   6  5  0   3.38   1.10

2001 Moyer, Jamie       SEA  17 115.1  68  19  96  32  11  3  0   2.50   1.00

Like Halladay, Moyer's previous second-half numbers indicate that he'll continue to have great success in the 2nd half of this season as the Mariners push forward for their division crown. In fact, his 2nd half of 2001 was good enough for 7th among all pitchers.

       Player          Team  Gms  IP   Ks BBs  Hs  ERs  W  L  S   ERA   Ratio

2003 Schmidt, Jason     SF   18 133.0 139  33  96  35   9  4  0   2.37   0.97

2002 Schmidt, Jason     SF   16 107.0 110  45  84  41   9  6  0   3.45   1.21

2001 Schmidt, Jason     SF   16 101.1  97  40  85  36   9  4  0   3.20   1.23

I agree with what the previous numbers show in that I expect him to be worse in the second half, but not so much so that I'd be willing to get rid of him. I think he can be counted on for 9 more wins, 100 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.35. Meaning he's still very capable of being your staff ace.

       Player          Team  Gms  IP   Ks BBs  Hs  ERs  W  L  S   ERA   Ratio

2003 Millwood, Kevin    PHI  20 127.2 106  38 112  51  10  6  0   3.60   1.17

2002 Millwood, Kevin    ATL  17 111.1  97  38  85  33  13  3  0   2.67   1.10

2001 Millwood, Kevin    ATL  14  82.2  61  28  81  37   6  4  0   4.03   1.32

Many expected continued success for Millwood following his great second half in 2002, and they were rewarded with a stellar 1st half of 2003 including a no-hitter. I suspect somewhere the between the performances of 2001 and 2002 for Millwood's summer. Around 10 wins with a mid-3.00 ERA and 95 strikeouts. Again, not someone I'd shove off in fears of a drop in production.

The next player isn't a superlative, but someone I want to examine nonetheless:

       Player          Team  Gms  IP   Ks BBs  Hs  ERs  W  L  S   ERA   Ratio

2003 Buehrle, Mark      CWS  21 136.0  66  41 145  64   7 10  0   4.24   1.37

2002 Buehrle, Mark      CWS  16 117.1  64  22 123  46   8  6  0   3.53   1.24

2001 Buehrle, Mark      CWS  17 118.2  57  25 106  43  10  4  0   3.26   1.10

Had I done this awhile back, I'd have been pushing to go out and buy Buehrle low, but after 5 wins in his last 6 starts, that window of opportunity has closed and it's evident that Buehrle is back. He'll continue his success into the summer and bring his ERA down even lower. From June 11th to July 12th, he took it from 5.18 to 4.24 and hasn't gone less than 6 innings in any start since the June 11th outing. If you can steal him cheap, go for it and if you have him, hold him.

Welcome to the All-Star Break...
The 2003 All-Star Break kicked off before the regular season games had even completed. It all started with yesterday's All-Star Futures Game with the USA defeating the World 3-2 in the seven inning exhibition. Up and commers like Rich Harden, Grady Sizemore, Joe Maurer, Zack Greinke, Khalil Greene, and Justin Huber were featured in the matinee at US Cellular Field in Chicago. I don't think the game garners much interest nationally, but I, for one, was glued to ESPN 2 watching this game as I continued to put off mowing my girlfriend's backyard. To me, the US versus the World format that both the Futures game as well as the NHL All-Star game use is very intriguing. With interleague play and all the coverage on ESPN, seeing the players from the league opposite your hometown team isn't nearly as exciting, so why not switch it to this format? This way you get some intrigue without having to offer up home field advantage in the World Series and coming out with those ridiculous commercials about how much it counts this year!

Of course, Bud Selig won't switch to this format because that would be improving his product and we all know he doesn't like doing that. But on this opening day of the break, let's pretend... let's make believe that Selig changed the All-Star Game format to the US versus the World for tomorrow's game withholding the one-player per team rule and using 30 players per team (18 hitters/12 pitchers):

The World

C   Javy Lopez, Puerto Rico

1B  Carlos Delgado, Puerto Rico

2B  Alfonso Soriano, Dominican Republic

3B  Mike Lowell, Puerto Rico

SS  Edgar Renteria, Colombia

OF  Albert Pujols, Dominican Republic

OF  Ichiro Suzuki, Japan

OF  Magglio Ordonez, Venezuela

DH  Melvin Mora, Venezuela

RES Sammy Sosa, Dominican Republic

RES Jorge Posada, Puerto Rico

RES Rafael Furcal, Dominican Republic

RES Jose Vidro, Puerto Rico

RES Andruw Jones, Curacao

RES Hideki Matsui, Japan

RES Luis Castillo, Dominican Republic

RES Orlando Cabrera, Colombia



P Pedro Martinez, Dominican Republic

P Esteban Loaiza, Mexico

P Hideo Nomo, Japan

P Miguel Batista, Dominican Republic

P Sidney Ponson, Aruba

P Javier Vazquez, Puerto Rico

P Joel Piniero, Puerto Rico

P Kaz Ishii, Japan

P Rheal Cormier, Canada

P Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Japan

P Eric Gagne, Canada

P Octavio Dotel, Dominican Republic

The United States

C   Paul Lo Duca, New York

1B  Todd Helton, Tenneessee

2B  Bret Boone, California

3B  Scott Rolen, Indiana

SS  Alex Rodriguez, New York

OF  Barry Bonds, California

OF  Gary Sheffield, Florida

OF  Vernon Wells, Louisiana

DH  Troy Glaus, California

RES Jason Varitek, Michigan

RES Garrett Anderson, California

RES Hank Blalock, California

RES Jim Edmonds, California

RES Geoff Jenkins, Washington

RES Preston Wilson, South Carolina

RES Richie Sexson, Oregon

RES Jason Giambi, California



P Roy Halladay, Colorado

P Jamie Moyer, Pennsylvania

P Roger Clemens, Texas

P Mark Mulder, Illinois

P Barry Zito, Nevada

P Dontrelle Willis, California

P Mark Prior, California

P Tim Hudson, Georgia

P John Smoltz, Michigan

P Billy Wagner, Virginia

P Keith Foulke, South Dakota

P Brendan Donnelly, Washington, D.C.

Like the actual All-Star Game, there are snubs, but I think this would be a wonderully interesting matchup for the MidSummer Classic. With 10 of the US players, California is on its way to filling out it's own team. Almost all of the players on these two clubs are part of the All-Star game already.

Since I didn't adhere to the one-player per team rule, the following teams were without representation: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit, New York (N), Pittsburgh, and San Diego. Boy, that AL Central is abhorrent. The representatives of those teams in the actual game are as follows: Lance Carter, Mike McDougal & Mike Sweeney, Eddie Guardado, C.C. Sabathia, Dmitri Young, Armando Benitez, Mike Williams, and Rondell White respectively. Only McDougal was considered for my US roster, but I went with the 8 starters and 4 relievers instead.

I'm torn between the two teams, but I'd probably have to take the US with their staff. I think year in, year out this US v. World matchup would get even better with more and more players coming over from Asia and the continued influence from Latin America. With Selig at the helm, you can guarantee that anything that would improve the wonderful game of baseball is pretty much shoved off of his desk in favor of ideas like home-field being decided by a bunch of players who won't be anywhere near the World Series. I understand the idea of trying to garner interest for the AS Game, but I don't see how involving the World Series is going to do that. I also don't understand why they can't ditch the one-player from every team rule. No one seems to want it and even those that don't mind it, have no problem watching it go away. I fit into the latter. Being a Detroit Tigers fan, I like seeing our one guy get onto the team, but not only do I not think it's necessary, but I would make no beef over it's extinction.


Dealing days continue....
As the trade deadline approaches, reports of rumors and actual deals will be given on a regular basis until the 31st courtesy of Lee Sinins' ATM reports. The weekend saw two deals on even more rumors pop up.

The Padres traded P Matt Herges to the Giants for minor league P Clay Hensley and either a player to be named later or cash.

My thoughts: The Giants were looking to solidify their bullpen and do so without giving up too much. Herges has a nice ERA (2.86), his 8.18 K/9 is solid and he strikes out twice as many hitters as he walks (40/20). Herges will join Tim Worrell, Scott Eyre and Felix Rodriguez as the main components of the NL West leading Giants.

The Tigers traded P Adam Bernero to the Rockies for OF-C Ben Petrick.

My Thoughts: Bernero was well on his way to joining the 20-loss club with Detroit and might get their quicker with Colorado. However, some people might not recognize it because your statistics reset when you switch leagues. Petrick was a former top prospect with the Rockies, but has fizzled into a prospect you trade for a 20-game loser. In 80 games with Colorado Springs, he has 11 HR, 40 RBI, .259 AVG and 2.0 K/BB rate. In other words, he fits right in with the Tigers. I'm not angry with the move, nor am I enamored with it. I hope that if the Tigers do move Mike Maroth, though I hope they don't, that get more value than this.

According to the Bergen Record, the Dodgers, Cubs and Royals are interested in Mets RF Jeromy Burnitz.

My Thoughts: All three teams could use the services of Burnitz with the Dodgers probably needing him most. A move to the Royals would show Chicago and Minnesota that the Royals are very serious about making the post season with a AL Central Divisional crown. The injury to Corey Patterson is where the Cubs come into play on Burnitz. Burnitz has settled into his role in New York and is playing light years above the level he played at last year. He has 18 home runs already, which is one off of his entire 2002 total. He's got his OPS up to .925, a level he hasn't been near since 1999. Expect him to move for prospects to the young Mets.

According to the Tampa Tribune, the Dodgers are interested in Devil Rays RF Aubrey Huff, but the Devil Rays aren't interested in trading him. The paper also reports the Reds are interested in Joe Kennedy, Victor Zambrano and Jeremi Gonzalez and, while the Devil Rays don't seem interested in Brandon Larson, they could be interested in Wily Mo Pena.

My Thoughts: The D-Rays are very wise to not move Huff and also to command a solid price on those arms that Cincy is interested in. They have a lot of talent in that organization and if were in charge there, I wouldn't be eager to move my young arms without getting plenty of value in returns. Considering the Dodgers have next to nothing in their farm system, I can't imagine them even being able to come up with a knock-you-off-your-feet offer for Huff.

The Juan Gonzalez to the Yankees trade rumors are heating up, while the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports the Diamondbacks, A's, Royals and Twins have also inquired about him.

My Thoughts: It appears as though Gonzalez will now accept a trade out of Texas, or at least be more willing to do so. He already rejected a trade to New York back when he was with Detroit, so that should be interesting. Also, reports have surfaced that he wants to be in the AL and on natural grass so I'd be surprised if he ended up in Arizona or Minnesota. Regardless, he appears to be the hot ticket, at least offensively, this trading season.

According to the LA Times, the Tigers and Devil Rays are interested in Angels P Scott Schoeneweis.

My Thoughts: Both of these bottom feeders would move Schoeneweis to the rotation and reports are saying that the Angels would be interested in getting a left-handed hitter to fill in for the injured Brad Fullmer, who is out for the remainder of the season. Warren Morris, Eric Munson, Carlos Pena, Kevin Witt, Alex Sanchez and the injured Bobby Higginson are the lefties on the Tigers roster. I would hope that if Munson or Pena were moved, it wouldn't be straight up for Schoeneweis.